“Our work clearly shows that self-driving vehicles will have a major impact on the transport system and if applied correctly, they will create economic, ecological and social sustainability benefits,” say Fredrik Larsson, head of analysis at the Urban transport administration at the city of Gothenburg and Lennart Persson, head of Trivector Gothenburg. The range of results enables planers to understand which assumptions have a greater or lesser influence on the outcome, stakeholders can make decisions with increased confidence.” For instance, if AVs will increase our desire to travel more? How quickly society will adopt them? Digital models allow us to simulate in multiple combinations of assumptions which produce a range of future outcomes. Kim Örn, PTV Group, explains: “There are many uncertainties and open questions on how the autonomous future will develop. Several of the simulated scenarios resulted in an increased traffic volume, despite a reduction in the overall number of vehicles. The study found that with shared self-driving vehicles, the total number of vehicles in the traffic system might be significantly less, but each vehicle drives more. The total number of vehicles in the traffic network can vary without reducing the vehicle milage. The simulation results show that an increase in the use of self-driving vehicles does not automatically lead to less traffic. They focused on two forms of AV usage: car-sharing, where people use self-driving services privately, like today’s cars and ride-sharing, where AVs are shared with other passengers, who have a similar destination. In the virtual environment of PTV Visum, the researchers examined numerous possible developments. The project brought together researchers and traffic analysts from Trivector and the Swedish knowledge centre for public transport, K2.
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